桥梁时变可靠性的概率密度演化分析方法

Probability density evolution analysis method for bridge time‑dependent reliability

  • 摘要: 在役桥梁在服役过程中经历时变荷载效应和抗力退化过程,荷载复杂多变以及失效模式多样等使得桥梁面临着服役风险,通常需要进行时变可靠性评估。经典时变可靠性分析方法随着随机变量个数的增加,分析次数和计算量显著增加。本文引入概率密度演化理论解决上述问题,该理论对于包含多个随机变量的复杂结构时变可靠性求解有明显优势。通过考虑桥梁抗力退化、荷载效应增加、收缩以及徐变效应等时变因素,分析了在役桥梁正常使用极限状态和承载力极限状态下的动态可靠性,其中概率密度演化方程的求解采用Dirac序列解法。将该方法的准确性和计算效率与蒙特卡洛方法进行了比较,验证了所提方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: Existing bridges undergo time‑varying load effects and resistance degradation during service. The complex loads and diverse failure modes make the existing bridges face greater risks in service. Therefore, it is urgent to make time‑dependent reliability assessment for the service bridges. The classical time‑varying reliability analysis method is more complex and difficult as the number of random variables increases. In this paper, probability density evolution theory is introduced to solve the above problem, which is more advantageous for solving the reliability of complex structures with multiple random variables. The dynamic reliability of the existing bridge in serviceability limit state and ultimate limit state is analyzed by considering the bridge resistance degradation and load effect increase, as well as the time‑varying factors such as shrinkage and creep effect of concrete bridges. The accuracy and computational efficiency for this method are compared with the Monte Carlo method, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.

     

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