主余震序列地震动谱加速度的空间相关性研究

Spatial correlation of spectral acceleration of mainshock‑aftershock earthquake sequences

  • 摘要: 按照一定的挑选准则从NGA‑West2地震动数据库中挑选了8个主余震地震事件,560条主余震序列地震记录,采用ASK14地震预测方程对主余震序列进行残差分析,并获得各台站主余震序列地震动的事件内残差,对其进行标准化处理。依据地统计学半变异函数方法,采用指数半变异函数模型与手工拟合方法计算主余震序列的谱加速度的空间自相关性;鉴于Pearson线性相关系数可以较好地衡量定距变量之间的线性关系,采用Pearson线性相关系数计算不考虑空间信息的主余震序列地震动不同谱加速度周期间标准化事件内残差的互相关性;依据马尔可夫的假设原理,将空间信息引入到互相关性计算中,进而获得空间互相关性随空间距离(h)变化的表达式。结果表明:主震在空间自相关性、互相关特性等方面均与余震有明显不同,余震在长周期阶段普遍具有更高的空间相关性,忽略主震与余震的空间相关性或采用主震特性代替余震特性,将对地震危险性分析、损失评估以及主余震序列地震动的合成等方面的研究造成不利的影响。

     

    Abstract: According to certain selection criteria, this paper selects 8 mainshock‑aftershock events and 560 mainshock‑aftershock sequences from NGA‑West2 ground motion database, uses ASK14 ground motion prediction equation to carry out residual analysis on the mainshock‑aftershock sequences, obtains the intra event residual of mainshock‑aftershock sequences at each station, and standardizes them. According to the geostatistical semivariogram method, the exponential semivariogram model and the manual fitting method are used to calculate the spatial autocorrelation of the spectral acceleration period of the mainshock‑aftershock sequence. Since the Pearson linear correlation coefficient can better measure the linear relationship between the fixed‑distance variables, the Pearson linear correlation coefficient is used to calculate the cross‑correlation of the normalized intra‑event residuals between different spectral acceleration periods of the mainshock‑aftershock sequence without considering the spatial cross‑correlation. According to Markov’s hypothesis, the spatial information is introduced into the calculation of the cross‑correlation, and then the expression of the change of the spatial cross‑correlation with the spatial distance (h) is obtained. The results show that the mainshock is significantly different from aftershocks in terms of spatial autocorrelation and cross‑correlation characteristics, and aftershocks generally have higher spatial correlation in the long‑period stage. Neglecting the spatial correlation between the mainshock and aftershocks or using the characteristics of the mainshock to replace the characteristics of the aftershocks will adversely affect the research on earthquake hazard analysis, damage assessment, and the synthesis of main and aftershock sequences.

     

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