非平稳随机主余震序列下工程结构易损性计算方法的适用性研究

The applicability of different vulnerability methods for engineering structures under nonstationary stochastic mainshock-aftershock sequences

  • 摘要: 随着基于性能的地震工程理论的发展,以“风险性-概率性”为导向的工程结构性能评估方法逐渐得到研究人员的重视与推广,其中的重要一环即地震易损性分析。易损性往往通过易损性曲线来表达,通过给出不同地震水准下工程结构超越不同极限状态的概率可能性,易损性可为相应的性能评价与风险决策提供参考。现有的易损性计算方法种类繁多,更多的研究侧重于介绍如何将概率理论与地震工程结合,而对于不同概率计算方法的准确性与适用性仍有待进一步探究。同时,现有的易损性往往基于天然波,而对于地震动随机性、非平稳性以及其在结构工程中的影响研究仍较为不足。此外,现有的研究注重于单一随机地震动下结构的响应评估,而对于随机主余震序列下的结构损伤规律仍有待深入总结。本文基于非平稳随机主余震序列,同时结合现阶段地震易损性分析中常用的三种方法:线性拟合法、最大似然估计法、蒙特卡洛法展开研究,首先对比了这三种方法的易损性计算原理,进而基于一榀框架展开实例分析,讨论了这三种方法的概率结果准确性、适用性以及随机余震对于结构性能的影响规律。总体而言,三种易损性计算方法得到的结果相似,发展趋势与分布范围较为一致,这也在一定程度证明了这三种方法的有效性;蒙特卡洛法计算周期长,最大似然估计法更加适用于轻微损伤的性能水准,线性拟合法在排除倒塌状态的散点后具有更高的准确度。在考虑了非平稳随机余震后,得到的概率易损性曲线整体呈现左移趋势,如若不考虑随机余震的影响,将大幅低估地震序列对结构造成的概率破坏风险。本文相应的结论可为后续研究中地震易损性计算方法的选择提供参考。

     

    Abstract: With the development of performance-based earthquake engineering, the "risk-probabilistic" oriented performance evaluation method has gradually gained the attention of researchers, an important part of which is seismic vulnerability analysis. Vulnerability is often expressed by the fragility curve. By giving the probability that engineering structures exceed a certain limit state under a special earthquake level, it provides a reference for the corresponding performance evaluation and risk decision-making. There are different kinds of vulnerability methods, and more researches focus on how to combine probability theory with earthquake engineering, but the reasonable comparison for the accuracy and applicability of different methods still requires further research. At the same time, the existing vulnerabilities are often based on natural waves, and in-depth analysis is required on the random characteristics and nonstationary properties of ground motions. In addition, existing researches focus on the response evaluation of structures under a single random earthquake, while the structural damage under random mainshock-aftershock sequences still needs to be further explored. Based on the nonstationary random mainshock-aftershock sequences, this paper compares three methods commonly used in seismic vulnerability at this stage: linear fitting method, maximum likelihood estimation, and Monte Carlo method. Then, based on a reinforced concrete frame, a case study is carried out, and the applicability of these three methods as well as the influence of random aftershocks are discussed. Generally speaking, the results obtained by the three methods are similar, and the development trends are relatively consistent, which also proves the effectiveness of these three methods to a certain extent. The Monte Carlo method has a long calculation period, the maximum likelihood estimation is more suitable for the performance level of minor damage, and the linear fitting method is more accurate after excluding the scattered points in the collapse state. After considering non-stationary random aftershocks, the obtained structural vulnerability shows an overall left-shifting trend. If the influence of random aftershocks is not considered, the probabilistic risk caused by earthquake sequences will be greatly underestimated. The corresponding conclusions can provide a reference for the vulnerability selections and aftershock assessments in subsequent studies.

     

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