BO-LSTM和Copula理论相融合的桥梁构件时变可靠性预测

Time-dependent reliability prediction of bridge components with the fusion of BO-LSTM and Copula theory

  • 摘要: 桥梁构件的各个监测点之间存在着非线性失效动态相关性,为研究该因素对桥梁时变可靠指标的影响,建立了贝叶斯优化的长短期记忆(BO-LSTM)网络模型,对桥梁监测应力极值进行动态预测;建立考虑三个监测点失效非线性相关性的三元Gaussian Copula模型,对桥梁构件的时变可靠指标和时变失效概率进行预测,利用天津市富民桥的监测数据对模型与方法的合理性进行了验证分析。

     

    Abstract: There exists the nonlinear failure correlation among the multiple monitoring points of bridge components. Considering the influence of this factor on the reliability indices of the bridge, this paper adopts the Bayesian optimized long short-term memory (BO-LSTM) network model in machine learning to dynamically predict the monitoring data of the bridge, and establishes a three-dimensional Gaussian Copula model based on Copula theory to calculate the time-varying reliability indices and failure probability of the bridge construction. The rationality of the model and method is verified by applying the monitoring data of Fumin Bridge in Tianjin.

     

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